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Two weeks ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm elections, the Democratic path to the House majority runs through congressional districts on city outskirts throughout the nation, from Orange County, Calif., to the Dallas suburbs to southern New Jersey.
While red rural states will likely decide whether Republicans keep the Senate majority, key races in suburban swing districts – including those that voted for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 – are where many House Republicans are on defense.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win control of the House. Working in their favor is President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, a historic 41 open or vacant or GOP seats, a fundraising edge and energy among Democratic voters.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 70 GOP seats, and only five for Democrats, as at-risk.
Key to Democrats’ success will be turnout among college-educated women, who are not only energized to vote, but running for office in record numbers.
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In a recent Tweet, Trump made an appeal to college-educated women voters, saying they want “safety, security and healthcare protections” along with “financial and economic health.”
“I supply all of this far better than any Democrat (for decades, actually). That’s why they will be voting for me!” he tweeted.
That’s not likely, given the energy of the women’s resistance movement and a gender gap the size of a canyon. A CNN poll released Oct. 9 showed 63 percent of women said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district while 50 percent of men said they would vote for the Republican.
Plus, the president's party historically loses seats in midterm elections. Polls show Americans favor Democrats over Republicans for Congress by more than 7 percentage points, according to a RealClearPolitics average.
-Source-CN blue wave, the House could look much different next year, with Democrats expanding their ranks of women in the House by up to one-third, said David Wasserman, the U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report, in a recent interview with USA TODAY.
Many, including women of color, are poised to make history as candidates.
-Source-CNB the first year in history when Americans elect more than 100 women to the House, but that would not be occurring without Donald Trump in the White House,” Wasserman said. “It is a direct reaction to his election. Read more
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