-Source-NPR-
The midterm elections are just five weeks away, so now we want to consider how the drama surrounding the Kavanaugh nomination could influence those midterms. We called David Axelrod and Mary Kate Cary for that. Mary Kate Cary was a speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush. She's now a senior fellow at the Miller Center at the University of Virginia. David Axelrod was a campaign strategist and White House adviser to President Barack Obama. Now he's director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago.
Thank you both so much for being with us today.
DAVID AXELROD: Great to be here.
MARY KATE CARY: Thanks for having us.
MARTIN: So let me start with one of the issues that people are already familiar with, which is the intensity question. Polls have been showing that Democrats are more energized about voting in the midterms. And this is important because, in the past, Democrats have not been as likely to vote. So do you think that the Kavanaugh hearings will change the momentum? So, David Axelrod, why don't you take that first?
AXELROD: Well, it's hard to say. I think the Republicans made a decision to kind of tribalize the fight in a way that has probably spurred some engagement on the part of the base. And that will favor Republicans trying to unseat Democrats in some of these red states that Trump won in 2016. On the other hand, I think you're also going to see further galvanization of voters in these suburban House districts, including many women, where there's already a historic gender gap. So you might actually see a bifurcated effect with the house going one way and the Senate going another.
MARTIN: Mary Kate, what do you think?
CARY: I think it's still too early to tell because I think things are going to change based on the results of the FBI investigation. You know, there is this conventional wisdom that there's going to be a blue wave, but I'm not so sure I buy into it because I don't really trust the polling right now because I think there's a lot of people who are understandably afraid to say what they think, especially in terms of expressing support for either Trump or Kavanaugh to a pollster. To me, the fact that the most-watched television network during the hearings was Fox News - that tells me more than the polls tell me.
MARTIN: Well, you know, there is some polling out - I'll just tell you what it is, although even the pollsters are saying that there's a lot of noise right now, just as both of you are saying. But, according to the Pew Research Center, large majorities of both parties said appointments to the Supreme Court will be very important to their votes this fall. And that's interesting because, in the past, the court has been a bigger issue for Republicans. But this latest polling found that it's now more important for Democrats. Eighty-one percent of Democrats listed the court as a big factor in their vote. And so, Mary Kate, what do you think that means? Read more
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