Mike Norris, Co-Editor, The American Dossier
This week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) faced a growing revolt in the Democratic Caucus.
Despite Pelosi’s oft-stated opposition to launching formal impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, a small group of Democrats began pushing to begin the process.
In response to the rumblings, House Democrats convened a meeting on Wednesday. During the meeting, five committee chairmen offered updates on their respective investigations into the President and repeated a simple message: It’s not the right time to impeach.
It was a reminder that even for the Democrats who feel most strongly about pursuing impeachment, it is still debatable whether they are willing to confront the most powerful woman in Congress and her supporters to do so.
Pelosi's stated threshold for "overwhelming and bipartisan" support to move forward with impeachment has not changed and for good reason.
As in 1998, public opinion does not support the impeachment of President Trump.
A May CNN poll showed that only 37% of Americans support impeachment, while 59% disagree. That same poll revealed that 44% of Democrats believe that impeachment is going too far in investigating the President, an increase from 38% in March.
A recent BPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll revealed that 91% of Republicans oppose impeachment. Independents also oppose the formal launch of the impeachment process against President Trump 51% - 40%, according to the Marist poll.
Given American’s current views, launching the formal impeachment process would not be a good political move for Democrats. Doing so would divide the Democrat Party, unify the Republican Party and push Independents toward the GOP. In terms of public opinion, the best that Democrats can currently hope for is a 50-50 split on impeachment — with Clinton voters in favor and Trump voters opposed. It is also entirely possible that impeachment remains a net political loser for Democrats.
Despite the public defections, Speaker Pelosi seems to be winning the Democrats’ internal impeachment fight — for now. The Speaker has blunted the defectors momentum by arguing in favor of a focus on tough investigations and a series of court battles with the White House.
“My message was stay the course we’re on,” Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, said at Wednesday’s meeting.
House Majority Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) claimed that he doesn't “think we're there at this point in time.”
Majority Whip Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-SC) said in an interview with Meet the Press that he believes if a secret ballot were cast on the issue among House Democrats, the majority would vote no.
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) is also backing Pelosi’s strategy of aggressive investigations. Waters addressed the caucus Wednesday, hailing Pelosi for guiding a feisty caucus through a difficult debate. “She’s been handling it very well,” Waters said. “It’s a tough job.”
On Fox News last month, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) voiced concerns about the “continued divisiveness and putting partisan political interests ahead of the interest of the people.”
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), has said that if Democrats focus on impeachment for the duration of the campaign, at the expense of talking about issues, it could work to President Trump’s advantage.
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) stated, “There’s a lot more investigation that should go on before Congress comes to any conclusions like that,” during a campaign event in Nevada last month.
But in recent days, the growing calls for impeachment have further divided an already fractured Democratic Caucus. The group largely confined their frustrations to closed-door sessions until recently.
No longer isolated to the Progressive wing of the party, rank-and-file Democrats are also growing restless, unlikely to hold their position for must longer.
This shift in attitudes suggests that more and more Democrats view Pelosi’s investigative strategy as ineffective—or that recent events have finally given them cover to say what they really think about impeachment.
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) called for Congress to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump after the release of the redacted Mueller report last month, arguing that Special Counsel Robert Mueller, “put the next step in the hands of Congress.”
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) has said that she thinks Congress “should take the steps toward impeachment,” though she added that she was realistic about the probable outcome in the Senate.
Despite the rising chorus of calls for impeachment, Speaker Pelosi has maintained her opposition.
Experience tells her that impeachment investigations will cause any legislation passed by the House to languish and die in the Republican controlled Senate. Forcing a vote on impeachment also puts Democrats who won in Trump districts in danger of losing their seats, putting control of the House in play.
As cracks in the Democratic Caucus grow, so too will leadership’s concerns about party unity ahead of the 2020 Election. Speaker Pelosi and her supporters believe that pushing to impeach will all but guarantee that Democrats lose, and lose big, next election.
Ultimately, no one is so powerful that they can stop the march of time. As the clock ticks and calendar pages turn, House Democrats get closer and closer to being forced to show their hand.
If public opinion remains the same and the Progressive Democrats get their way, House Democrats will lose seats and the control of the House. And President Trump will get re-elected.
After serving as an Airborne Infantryman in the 82nd Airborne Division, Mike attended Florida State University, where he received his Bachelors Degree in Political Science and George Washington University, where he received his Masters in Political Management.
Since 2004, Mike has worked in the Florida Senate, where he was one of only two Chief’s of Staff under 30 and in the Michigan Senate, where he served as the Legislative Aide to the Assistant Minority Floor Leader. The 2018 election cycle was Mike’s eighth as a Political Consultant.
Mike previously served as the Secretary and Vice President of the Tampa Bay Young Republicans, Regional Vice Chair for the Florida Federated Young Republicans and attended the 2012 Republican National Convention as an Alternate Delegate. He currently lives in Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan, with his rescue Pit Bull, Ike.
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