-Source-Vanity Fair-
Most of us will probably run for president in 2020. Donald Trump has made anything seem possible. But Democrats must be careful. Half of America is telling itself to hang on for 30 more months, but deep down there’s a sobering awareness that this thing could stretch to the full two terms. The Democratic primaries of 2020 will thus be intense, bitter, and crowded. The nominee could turn out to be no one we’ve heard of—some Sully Sullenberger–like hero out of nowhere who has done something to save a lot of lives, like fighting off an invasion from Krypton—or, more likely, it could be someone familiar, competent, and imperfect.
If Donald Trump avoids getting us into war (still no small if, regrettably) and presides over an economy that’s still booming (unlikely but not impossible), then he’s likely to get re-elected, regardless of who his challenger may be. That might be tough for people to take, but a message of “I’ll keep the peace and prosperity going” (sort of Clintonian) is at least preferable to a message of “I’ll see through the dumb war I started” (sort of Bushian). On the other hand, if things get a lot rockier for Trump, as is quite possible, then choosing the right challenger—or the not-wrong challenger—becomes critical. So let’s consider the likeliest Democratic candidates and their likeliest flaws.
Joe Biden: “Middle-class Joe” is lovely and impossible to hate, unless you’re a partisan, in which case you hate him. He has suffered terrible personal tragedies and connects with ordinary Americans. He’s loved by Senate Republicans and Democrats alike. But he’s also, frankly, a goofball.
This helps blunt criticisms of his unusually tactile approach to politics, but Biden's campaign gaffes in 2008, which included asking a paraplegic to stand, were so relentless that Barack Obama once reportedly fumed, “How many times is Biden gonna say something stupid?” Such foibles don’t diminish with age, and Biden will be 78 in 2020.
All of this is fodder for a bully, meaning you-know-who. On a more substantive note, Biden is tied to the record of Barack Obama, who disappointed many of the voters who need to be won back. On the bright side, one of Biden’s skeletons, an embarrassing episode of having plagiarized the oratory of British Labor leader Neil Kinnock, is off limits for attack, unless Trump wants a reminder that his wife did something similar. Read more
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