-Source-FiveThirtyEight-
If you’re anything like me, you get inordinately excited every time you see a tweet from @MonmouthPoll.1 Not only is Monmouth University’s polling operation one of only six pollsters with an A+ grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, but it’s also great about polling elections that otherwise don’t get much attention.
This week, Monmouth released a poll of California’s 48th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Harley Rouda. Let me enumerate all the reasons I love this poll:
First, it’s of a congressional race — it’s rare to get high-quality polls of any U.S. House races, especially this early in an election cycle.
Second, it’s the sixth U.S. House poll2 that Monmouth has conducted this year. We’re always in favor of pollsters focusing on a handful of important but less high-profile races rather than being one of dozens to poll the same old swing states.
Third, Monmouth doesn’t just release one set of toplines: It releases three, reflecting the very real uncertainty about which voters will turn out in November. (If there’s one thing you take away from reading FiveThirtyEight, it should be not to be afraid of uncertainty.) Among what Monmouth calls “potential voters” — those who have voted in any election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote — Rouda leads 46 percent to 43 percent. Among voters who are likely to vote based on historical midterm turnout, the Democrat is up 47 percent to 45 percent. And among likely voters in a “Democratic surge” scenario, Rouda defeats Rohrabacher 48 percent to 44 percent. (All three leads are within the margin of error.)
The release of the poll was timely, given Tuesday’s revelation that Rohrabacher — who has been criticized for his pro-Russia sympathies — had met with Maria Butina, who was charged Monday with attempting to influence U.S. politics as an illegal Russian agent. (Because the poll was conducted July 11-15, the results don’t reflect any changes in public opinion in response to that news.) But we’re interested in what the poll can tell us about the battle for the House generally, in addition to what it means for Rohrabacher. The 48th District has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean3 of R+4, meaning that it is 4 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. Yet according to an average of Monmouth’s two likely-voter models, the Democrat is leading in this district by 3 points. That implies that the national political environment is leaning Democratic by 7 points (because D+3 is a 7-point shift toward the Democrats from R+4).
We can do this exercise with all six House polls4 that Monmouth has released so far. Read more
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