(Real Clear Politics)
Conventional wisdom about presidential campaign strategy changed around the turn of the current century. Traditionally, candidates were advised to move to the center in the general election campaign after catering to the party bases in the primaries. Not anymore. George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns exemplify the shift.
In 2000, Bush ran as a “compassionate conservative” appealing to a broad cross-section of the country. He won the presidency despite losing the popular vote. Four years later, his campaign focused on turning out the Republican base. The most common explanation for discarding decades-old practice was, as The Economist put it in 2002: “The 50:50 nation appears to be made up of two big, separate voting blocks, with only a small number of swing voters in between.” Academic research supports the view that fewer voters split their tickets now than in earlier decades.
Also, fewer Americans change their party preference from election to election. If only a small number of unattached voters are up for grabs, the emphasis of campaigns naturally has shifted to the “base.” Feed them red meat and maximize their turnout.
We have been skeptical of this newfound conventional wisdom. One of the reasons many voters seem more set in their partisan voting inclinations is that today’s parties are much more homogeneous than in the past, nominating the same types of candidates from office to office.
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