-Source-The American Dossier- Larry Mendte, Contributor-
Control of Congress hangs in the balance in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Although most political prognosticators predict that the Democrats will win a majority in the House, while the Republicans should keep control of the Senate and may even pick up a seat; no one really knows for sure. Remember how wrong the polls were in the 2016 presidential election?
It seems not everyone is honest about what they will do once they are alone in a voting booth.
But we can use the polls to pinpoint the bellwether races to watch for on Tuesday night. Consider this a viewing guide for Election coverage. As the polls close across the country, these are the Senate and House races, state by state and district by district, that will give you an indication of how things are going to go.
Remember, the current makeup of the House is 235 republicans and 193 democrats. The democrats will have to get to 217 seats to take the majority. The democrats go into election night ahead in 15 seats held by republicans.
In the Senate, the republicans hold a slim majority, 51-49, two independent senators (Bernie Sanders from Vermont and Angus King from Maine) caucus with the democrats.
In North Dakota, Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is down by double-digits in the red state to Republican challenger Rep. Kevin Cramer. If that holds, the republicans will increase their majority by one.
All of the House seats are up for election. 34 Senate seats will be decided. All times listed below are Eastern Standard Time.
7PM: Polls close in Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.
Senate: Indiana Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly is facing a tough challenge in a traditionally red state. Mike Braun, who calls himself a conservative businessman, is the republican candidate. The race is considered a toss-up. This will be the first indicator of how the Senate is going to go. If the Democrats lose in Indiana, they have little to no chance of taking the Senate.
House: Republican Representative Andy Barr is in a surprisingly close race in Kentucky’s 6th district with democratic challenger, Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot. Recent polls show Barr with a narrow lead. If Barr loses, it will signal a long night for republicans.
Virginia’s 5th district is an open seat. Republican Congressman Tom Garrett is retiring. Democrat Businessman Denver Riggleman is trying to keep the seat Republican, but is tied in the polls with Democrat Leslie Cockburn, an award winning investigative journalist. Virginia’s 7th district is also a toss-up race. Republican incumbent David Bratt is tied the polls with Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA Operations Officer.
7:30PM: Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
House: North Carolina’s 9th Congressional district is the only bellwether race in either the House or Senate in this group of states. Pastor Mark Harris defeated incumbent Robert Pittenger in the Republican primary. He is now dead-locked in the polls with Marine veteran and businessman Dan McCready. Both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump won this district by double digits in the 2008 and 2014 presidential elections.
8:00PM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, DC.
Senate: Florida Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is in a tough re-election battle with Republican challenger and current Governor Rick Scott. This race is a toss-up in most polls. This will be the second of five close races that will determine control of the Senate. Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has pulled ahead in the Tennessee senate race and should keep the seat for republicans.
House: In Florida, there are three House seats held by Republicans that are considered toss-ups. Watch for results in FL-15, FL-26 and FL-27. Democratic pickups in any one of those races, gets them that much closer to taking control. There are five republican seats in New Jersey, democrats may steal four of them. The closest in NJ3, where Republican incumbent Tom MacArthur is in a nasty and expensive battle with former Obama national security advisor Andy Kim.
In New Hampshire, the 1st District is one of the few Democratic seats that are polling as a toss-up. Democrat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter is retiring. Democrat Chris Pappas is hoping to keep the seat and become the state’s first openly gay congressman. For the republicans, Eddie Edwards is trying to be the first black person elected by the state. This would be a big, but improbable win for the GOP.
9:00 PM Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Senate: This is when the democrats have their best opportunity to pick up a seat. Republican Senator Jeff Flake is retiring in Arizona. Although the race between congresswoman Krysten Sinema, a democrat, and republican Martha McSally is a statistical tie. Sinema has taken a small lead in recent polls. Although democrats are excited about the thought of Rep. Beto O’Rourke unseating Texas Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, polls have shown Cruz building a substantial lead.
House: There are 12 House seats that could go either way in this grouping of states. Ten of them are seats held by republicans (AZ1, KS2, MI8, MI11, MN1, NY1, NY19, NY22, TX7, TX32). Two Democratic Minnesota Seats are also statistical ties (MN1, MN7). It very well may be announced in the 9 o’clock hour that the democ rats have taken the house.
10PM: Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
Senate: President Trump has paid several visits to Montana to try to unseat Democratic Senator John Tester. Even though Trump won Montana by 21 points, it looks like Tester will survive a challenge from Republican Auditor General Matt Rosendale. Nevada Republican Senator Dean Heller is facing a fierce challenge from Democrat Congresswoman Jackie Rosen. When the Nevada race is decided, we should know the makeup of the new Senate.
House: Iowa has four House seats and three are being contested. The tightest is in the 3rd District, where incumbent Republican David Young is facing a tough challenge from community activist Cindy Axne.
11PM and 1AM: Polls close in California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Alaska.
By now, the fate of both the House and the Senate should be decided, but there are still five house seats in the blue state of California that the republicans are trying to hold on to. And in the red state Alaska, the at-large seat held by Republican Don Young is also being threatened by educator Alyse Gavin (D).
Larry Mendte is an award winning writer, reporter, anchor and documentarian. He has been the main anchor of television newscasts at network stations in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia. Currently Larry hosts two news television talk shows in New Jersey and Delaware and a radio show at WABC in New York. Larry was the first host of Access Hollywood and has won over 90 Emmy awards for his work.
Comments