-Source-Forbes-
Below, we see the annual histogram for the oil price from 1983 through 2017. These bars represent the expected return (magnitude of price change multiplied by the probability of a price rise) on a monthly basis. March and April have been the strongest months. The May through July period has been slightly positive. In August, there is a 57% likelihood of higher prices with an average price gain of about 2.8%.
Chart 1
Cycles Research Investments LLC
July has been a firm month; August has been strong.
The next graph is that of a composite of the most effective monthly cycles within the oil price. The cycle rises into mid-September and falls for six weeks into late October. This will likely be the time period for the next intermediate correction. Read more