(Chicago Sun Times)
You know what Sunday is, right?
No, not the Super Bowl — geez, you’re worse than I am.
That’s … the first Sunday in February.
This coming Sunday, Jan. 20, is … wait for it … the second anniversary of the Trump presidency.
And you without a gift.
Don’t feel bad, these things sneak up.
Two years down.
Only … six to go.
Ha ha! You thought I was going to say “two to go,” didn’t you? You believe he’s out in 2020, if not before? Pretty to think so. But if this historical epoch has taught anybody anything—and I’m not convinced it has—it’s the infinite human capacity for self-delusion, and a bottomless genius for misunderstanding what is going on right before our eyes.
From where I’m sitting, Trump wins in 2020.
Handily.
Why? Lots of reasons.
President Donald Trump gestures as he acknowledges the fake snow that fell as he entered the Mississippi Coast Coliseum for a rally Monday, Nov. 26, 2018, in Biloxi, Miss.
President Donald Trump at a rally in Mississippi in November. | AP Photo
First, he’s the incumbent. History favors the incumbent: 19 presidents have run for re-election since 1900 (including Gerald Ford, who was technically running for his first election, since he was never voted in). Fourteen won, five lost—Taft to Wilson; Hoover to FDR; Ford to Carter; Carter to Reagan, and George H. W. Bush to Clinton.
So statistics give Trump almost 3-to-1 odds of winning. Read more