(FiveThirtyEight)
The first and second Democratic debates have made one thing clear: A number of major policy reforms are on the table, including sweeping proposals on health care and climate change. And many of these ideas appear popular among the majority of Americans. A July Marist poll found that 63 percent of Americans said a plan like the “Green New Deal,” which would address climate change by investing heavily in environmentally friendly jobs and infrastructure, was a good idea; similarly, 70 percent said they supported “Medicare for all who want it,” which would give Americans a choice between government-sponsored health insurance and private insurance.
But beneath those top-line numbers are red flags about just how much the popularity of these reforms depends on how they are written and enacted. That same Marist poll found, for instance, that most Americans do not think “Medicare for All” is a good idea if it means replacing all private health insurance with the government version. This is important to keep in mind as public opinion toward a complex policy can be dictated by the plan’s least-popular element.
Let’s take the Affordable Care Act as an example. Just before Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009, 51 percent of Americans in an Associated Press poll said “implementing a national health care plan” was a top priority. And early in Obama’s presidency, the majority of Americans surveyed in a 2009 CNN poll approved of the job he was doing on health care. But once the law passed in 2010, it was generally rated unfavorably until President Trump took office and the prospect that the law would be scrapped became real. Read more