Mike Norris, Co-Editor, The American Dossier
On Tuesday night, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was prepared to flee Venezuela, until the Russian government persuaded him to stay.
"He had an airplane on the tarmac, he was ready to leave this morning as we understand it, and the Russians indicated he should stay," Pompeo stated. “He was headed for Havana.”
On Wednesday, Russia denied telling Maduro to stay in Caracas. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Pompeo's statement, "yet another example of dirty propaganda by the U.S."
The stand-off between Russia and the U.S. is the most recent development in a proxy battle that threatens a return to the Cold War years. Russia insists that Maduro is Venezuela's legitimate leader, while the U.S. has thrown its support behind opposition leader Juan Guaido.
Guaido, the former leader of Venezuela's National Assembly, declared himself the country's President after Venezuela’s May 2018 election. The election, which was boycotted by opposition parties, reported widespread voting irregularities.
Venezuela has been Russia’s biggest partner in Latin America since the early 2000’s.
Reuters estimates that the Russian government and Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned oil company, have extended Venezuela at least $17 billion in loans and credit lines since 2006. Venezuela signed over almost half of Citgo as collateral to Rosneft for $1.5 billion in cash.
Russia sold approximately $11.4 billion in military equipment to Venezuela, who was among the four largest purchasers of Russian military hardware in 2006 and 2013. Russia loaned Venezuela at least $2 billion to enable them to buy the equipment.
Russia also continues to supply parts for equipment previously sold to Venezuela and carries out maintenance work to keep that equipment operational.
With their sizeable investment in mind, Russia has supported Maduro since the crisis in Venezuela erupted earlier this year. Although Russian forces have been in the country as part of a long-standing military partnership, their numbers have grown in recent months.
In December 2018, two Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers arrived in Venezuela. The bombers were accompanied by a heavy-lift An-124 Ruslan cargo plane and an Il-62 passenger plane.
Despite Russia’s close ties with the Maduro regime, defense and foreign affairs analysts describe Russia’s actions a power play, concerned more with antagonizing the U.S. than defending Maduro.
Russia sees the crisis in Venezuela as another opportunity, like Syria, to portray itself as a force capable of neutralizing the U.S.’s power. From Putin’s perspective, inserting himself in the Americas is payback for the expansion of NATO and U.S. support for revolutions in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine, which brought U.S.-aligned governments to power.
Although the world has focused much of its attention on the U.S. and Russia, Cuba also faces great losses if Maduro falls. Under a decade-old agreement, Venezuela supplies Cuba with free and subsidized oil. In exchange, Cuba sends 20,000 military and intelligence agents to Venezuela.
These Cubans are a large part of the “enforcers” Maduro uses to keep the Venezuelan military from flipping to support Guaidó. They exert significant control over Venezuela’s intelligence service and communications among military leaders.
But the Cubans also risk economic and military disaster if they continue supporting Maduro. President Trump has already imposed sanctions to cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to the island and Tuesday’s threat of a “full and complete embargo” may leave Cuba in the position of being able to offer little assistance, outside of words.
As the unrest continues in Venezuela, world leaders watch, wondering just how much support Russia will give Maduro. And could Russia be ready to strike a deal with the U.S. to end Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crisis?
Some analysts think that the two countries could imminently come to a deal regarding Maduro’s departure. The U.S. and Russia have already discussed Venezuela at a mid-March Rome meeting between Russia’s deputy foreign minister and the U.S. special representative for Venezuela.
Only time will tell if Venezuela becomes the next Cuban Missile Crisis, or the next Cold War.
After serving as an Airborne Infantryman in the 82nd Airborne Division, Mike attended Florida State University, where he received his Bachelors Degree in Political Science and George Washington University, where he received his Masters in Political Management.
Since 2004, Mike has worked in the Florida Senate, where he was one of only two Chief’s of Staff under 30 and in the Michigan Senate, where he served as the Legislative Aide to the Assistant Minority Floor Leader. The 2018 election cycle was Mike’s eighth as a Political Consultant.
Mike previously served as the Secretary and Vice President of the Tampa Bay Young Republicans, Regional Vice Chair for the Florida Federated Young Republicans and attended the 2012 Republican National Convention as an Alternate Delegate. He currently lives in Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan, with his rescue Pit Bull, Ike.