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Understanding The Crisis In Venezuela

(The Hill)



Venezuela's long-standing political crisis expanded over the past week, as a handful of countries led by the United States recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country's legitimate president.


It's still unclear whether Guaidó will be able to effectively take power from de facto incumbent Nicolás Maduro, but that battle will be fought as much in the streets of Caracas as in American courtrooms and the halls of the United Nations building in New York.


Here's what you need to know about the situation:

The Venezuelan military is the ace in the hole

  • Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, have relied heavily on the military to take control of existing institutions and supplant civilian authority in existing institutions.

  • Maduro's extreme reliance on military loyalty was most clearly exemplified in November 2017, when he named Major General Manuel Quevedo, a military officer with no prior oil industry experience, as head of the country's oil sector running the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

  • Quevedo's stint as an oilman has been disastrous, with oil export revenue in 2018 at its lowest point in recent history despite climbing oil prices.

  • Still, at $20.9 billion in external revenue in 2018, oil is a major source of hard currency for Maduro's government and it's under military control.

  • There are also widespread accusations that the Bolivarian National Guard is deeply involved in the drug trade, particularly with control of cocaine smuggling routes to Europe. Read more

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